Eurolemmings

So, the Euro saga drags on. When and how it stops, nobody seems to know at this point. It's as if Europe has gone over the cliff and is in freefall; only when one or more members have some kind of landing, hard or soft, will we be able to get a true sense of the state of Europe. Until then, all we can do is look at the size of government debt, borrowing costs, unemployment figures etc. in an effort to determine how far over the cliff each member country is.

So, we bring you the digram above; eurolemmings, which shows the relative positions of 12 EU member states with regard to the factors mentioned above. As you can see, Greece and Ireland are much closer to some kind of landing than the rest of the pack. Will some benevolent wind blow in to provide some much needed updraft in those parachutes, or will the rocks below get ever closer until someone goes splat? If so, will that be the point at which the Eurozone breaks up? Who knows, we shall wait and see. In the meantime; Merry Crisis!

Click the image for a larger version.

UK Misery Index suggests more unrest to come

 

This chart shows the UK "Misery Index" (Inflation rate plus unemployment rate percentages) since the 1970s. I've overlaid the major incidents of civil unrest (of which there have been a steady stream) along the way. Click on the image to see it full size so you can read the labels; (I've used black and white on the labels to break them up visually, but the two colours don't signify anything other than a crowded chart).

The dotted horizontal line plots our current point on the chart, 13.3,  so we can compare past with present. Looking at the trend above and below this line, it seems that we are possibly at an inflection point. We spent much of the 1970s and '80s above this point and I count 10 riots between 1975 and 1985. Contrast that with the last 15 years, which have been below our current point on the chart. Although we've had demonstrations against the Iraq and Afghan wars and other political protests in that time, I only count 3 riots on the chart; excluding the most recent ones in November 2010 and August 2011, both of which happened soon after the misery index took a huge leap towards the line of reckoning.

In short it seems that below, say, 13, on the misery index, people are inclined to protest against governments but once we go over that level, the tendency to start rioting instead of marching with banners increases rapidly. Given that the economic forecast for the near future indicates no growth on GDP in the coming quarter and unemployment is set to rise next year as government cuts take effect, it seems reasonable to expect that more rioting, on a larger scale than those we saw in August, is an inevitability (and possibly a regularity) in 2012.

Worringly, the graph seems to be currently trending in a similar pattern to that  of the early 1970s, just before the 3 day week was enforced on the back of an oil crisis. Let's hope it doesn't get that severe this time round. But with Europe looking set to implode any day now, a crumbling USA and unrest building all over the world, the next year doesn't seem to offer many rays of hope.

Sit tight, be right.

UK unemployment | a visual guide

Hello and welcome to Small Mod Cons.  SMC started off a quarterly photocopied 'zine looking at economic trends. We've now progressed to the web-o-sphere with this blog where we aim to do more of the same on a regular basis. For this first post we are taking a look, literally, at the current UK unemployment situation, with some nice graphs to break it down visually.

The UK unemployment rate currently stands at 8.1%, the highest level for over 15 years. You can see how most of the increase happened in 2009 but recently we have taken another upturn, suggesting a rising trend in unemployment. This graph shows that we stand somewhere in the middle of our European neighbours but we could soon be heading into a similar zone to that of the more troubled EU members.

The graph below shows how a slide in job vacancies has coincided with rising unemployment (a sure sign of a shrinking economy), leading to a ratio of 5.6 unemployed people for every job vacancy.

 Here's a visual representation of the age distribution of the unemployed section of the UK population.

This chart shows the differing unemployment rates between 16-24 yr olds and the general population. The problem is 2.6 times as acute for young people. It seems the job market is in a similar situation to the housing market, with a lack of opportunity for first time entrants.

 

All data is from the Office of National Statistics Oct 2011 statistical bulletin. If there are other aspects of the UK unemployment situation you would like to see visually represented, please contact us, as we do requests!